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핵심어 |
호텔 (Hotel), 마이스(MICE), 최적 예측 모형 (Optimal Forecasting Model), 매출액 (Sales), 원터스가법모델 (Additive Seasonality Model) |
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초록 |
The purpose of this study is to explore the optimal forecasting model for Hotel’s MICE(Meeting, Incentive Travel, Convention, & Exhibition) sales. In order to verify the optimal forecasting model, time series data by years and month of a five star hotel in Seoul was used. Several quantitative methods were applied to forecast Hotel’s MICE sales such as exponential smoothing method: additive seasonality and multiplicative seasonality, and seasonal ARIMA). The criteria is MAPE(mean absolute percentage error) for inferring the optimal forecasting model. After analyzing the time series data of Hotel’s MICE, additive seasonality in exponential smoothing method was considered as an optimal model. The study implies very significant achievement in forecasting sales in the MICE industry, even though there are several limitations in terms of more sophisticated approach in selecting the optimal model and considering unexpected external factors such as MERS, Sewolho shocks, etc. |
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