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초록 |
The purpose of study is to determine more accurate models to forecast exhibition
using area of convention centers in Korea. Eleven models were tested based upon the
degree of MAPE. Those were; NAΪVE2 model, Linear model, Quadratic model,
Cubic model, Growth model, S-curve model, Exponential model, Log model, Holt
exponential smoothing model, Brown exponential smoothing model, and Causal
model. Among them, Linear model, Holt exponential smoothing model, Brown
exponential smoothing model, and Causal model were selected to forecast exhibition
using area of convention centers in Korea. For the further study, it is suggested that
more data should be collected for the time series forecasting, and more diverse
economic variables should be used for causal forecasting model. |
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